We support leaders in the public, corporate, and financial sectors with data-driven analysis of China’s economy, policy dynamics, and commercial ties.
Rhodium Group’s China research is grounded in an objective analysis of economic and policy dynamics, and a laser-like focus on implications for government and business decision-makers. We support the public sector, corporate leadership, and institutional investors’ strategy and decision-making with deep and actionable analysis of China’s economy and its global interactions. Our thought leadership work with philanthropies and think tanks has been a part of Rhodium’s mission since its founding in 2008.
Report
Chemicals are a top priority in China’s broader drive for industrial competitiveness and supply chain self-sufficiency. This report explores the causes and ramifications of China’s expansive chemicals buildout.
Note
The latest outbound investment controls indicate that the high-stakes nature of tech competition with China will impose hard limits on Trump's transactionalism.
Note
Client exclusive
Democrats are favored to win the House and possibly the Senate in the US midterm elections on November 3. Democrats have outlined a legislative strategy challenging Trump on issues ranging from tariffs and affordability, to tech, to Taiwan.…
Report
India is building AI compute faster than it can use it as the country experiences a data center boom built on generous policy support. This makes India central to US AI export strategy and economic security alignment, despite its non-aligned mantra.
PM in a group photograph along with global tech leaders at the Opening Ceremony of India AI Impact Summit 2026 at Bharat Mandapam, in New Delhi on February 19, 2026.
Note
Simulating the Board of Trade's proposed tariff cuts using a leading trade model, we estimate that annual global US goods exports could rise by $10.3 billion and global Chinese goods exports could rise by $11.0 billion relative to the status quo.
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Client exclusive
Before Trump and Xi even sat down together, US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent fed reporters the White House’s headlining summit deliverable: The Busan truce that expires in November would be extended, but only by two months, through January 10.…
Note
If China's exports kept rising at the same rate they are today, large trading economies with export profiles similar to China like the United States, Germany, Indonesia, and France stand to lose the most.
Report
We examine how China’s AI firms finance their operations and evaluate their scope and sustainability, including a comparative perspective with US firms.
When trustworthy data isn’t readily available, we have successfully built our own models to fill gaps.
China Outbound Intelligence (COI) combines detailed data on individual FDI transactions with intelligence on the companies behind them, for the most comprehensive view anywhere of Chinese multinationals' global expansion.
The China Cross-Border Monitor (CBM) tracks aggregate FDI trends and data on China's global investment activity for academic researchers and journalists
Rhodium Group’s China Investment Risk Analytics (CIRA) screens Chinese issuers and portfolios for sanctions exposure, critical technology positioning, party-state ties, military affiliations, and emerging controversies.
Our industrial land use database tracks transactions in China's primary land markets to offer a proxy for industrial fixed asset investment.
The China Pathfinder project scores China's market reform across six key areas relative to open market economy norms.
Rhodium Group provides research, data, and insights that help clients face new challenges and seize new opportunities in China. Our teams have solutions for companies, investors, and governments that operate in or do business with China.
We provide strategic planning support for world-leading tech, industrial, retail, and services companies. With Rhodium’s help, clients can develop robust China+ strategies, uncover new revenue and investment opportunities, map out risks, build mitigation plans, optimize cross-border operations, and stress-test internal assumptions.
Our highly experienced analysts take a credit-driven, “follow the money” approach to gauging the inflection points in China’s economic outlook. We have a track record of predicting where China’s economy will go well before it gets there, providing huge value for institutional investors.
Our team provides best in class written and visual analysis to help public and private sector clients better understand key questions about China and its relation to the world. By engaging actively in the public debate about China’s interactions with the world, we constantly test our analysis against real world experience with leader-level audiences.
Combining cutting-edge technology with deep analytical China expertise, we create data solutions that help public and private sector clients manage risks and seize opportunities connected to China’s development and emerging global footprint.
Rhodium Group provides research, data, and insights that help clients understand and respond to new challenges and opportunities in China. Our teams have solutions for companies, investors, and governments that operate in or do business with China.
Our servicesAmerican Chemistry Council, “China’s Share of Global Capacity Continues to Surge,” April 15, 2026. https://www.americanchemistry.com/better-policy-regulation/trade/resources/china-s-share-of-global-capacity-continues-to-surge.
MOFCOM did not specify which 90% of products would return to MFN tariff rates, nor what would happen to tariff rates on the remaining 10% of products. The US side has not confirmed these details. For simplicity, the analysis throughout this note assumes that both sides will reduce tariff rates on all Board of Trade products to MFN levels.
To smooth out year-to-year fluctuations, we weight listed products by their average annual bilateral imports during 2020-2025.
Our baseline scenario that serves as our point of comparison holds all countries’ share of global exports fixed at their present value through 2030 while prices evolve. In this scenario, China’s prices are declining steeply, while its volume growth remains modest, rising only slightly as world export volume increases. This means that China’s total export value in 2030 is less than its export value in 2025 in our baseline comparison ($3.6T vs. $3.1T; in our scenario where China’s export share continues to grow, its total export value increases by $681 billion annually in 2030). This has the further implication that in recent years, if China’s share of global exports had not been growing, its total export value would have otherwise declined, given the steep price declines in many sectors (and indeed, total export values did decrease in some HS 2-digit categories where volume growth was muted between 2022 and 2025).
For methodological details see Francois de Soyres et al., “The Sectoral Evolution of China’s Trade,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, February 28, 2025. https://www.federalreserve.gov/econres/notes/feds-notes/the-sectoral-evolution-of-chinas-trade-20250228.html.
Free cash flow here refers to operating cash flow minus capex. Items like Tencent’s media content and lease liability payments are excluded within this calculation.
Hyperscalers and Telecoms here refer to Alibaba, Baidu, Huawei, China Mobile, China Telecom, and China Unicom. Tencent and ByteDance are excluded because they do not disclose their cloud service revenues.
According to Artificial Analysis, cost per task is: “weighted average cost per Intelligence Index task. Each evaluation’s cost is calculated from input, cache hit, cache write, reasoning, and answer token prices, divided by task count, and weighted by its Intelligence Index weight.” The Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index v4.3 includes: AA-Briefcase, GDPval-AA v2, AutomationBench-AA, Terminal-Bench v4.0, SciCode, Humanity’s Last Exam, GDP.pdf, CritPt, AA-Omniscience, and AA-LCR v1.1.
For consistency in comparison, we used Zhipu’s MaaS ARR for ratio calculation, excluding revenues of its on-premise deployment and other types of business.
Estimated by plugging in 3-month SOFR rate of 4% and CAS rate of 0.3%.
